Technique
Envision and explore multiple plausible future scenarios to inform design decisions. This technique is rooted in the idea that the futures are uncertain and dynamic. And by considering a range of possible outcomes, we can better prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Steps to map scenarios
Start by identifying the megatrends in your design context. These could encompass technological advancements, societal changes, environmental shifts, economic developments, or any other significant trends relevant to your problem space.
Choose two megatrends that, at first glance, appear unrelated. These megatrends should have the potential to impact your design project significantly. Extrapolate these megatrends into an x and y axis on a matrix or chart.
On the matrix, you'll have four quadrants. Develop scenarios for each quadrant, considering how the intersection of the x and y megatrend factors could play out in the future. Ensure these scenarios are plausible and internally consistent.
Best practices
Scenario planning benefits from diverse perspectives. Include team members with different backgrounds and expertise to better identify and understand uncertainties.
Avoid overly optimistic or pessimistic scenarios and involve people of different backgrounds. Be open to a range of possibilities even those that may challenge your preconceived notions.
While scenario planning often looks at the long-term future, it's also important to imagine how such scenario could be manifested in the near future as it'll require immediate attention from your design decision.
Ethnography
Method
Delve into people's real-world contexts and gain rich insights. Unbundle social and cultural fabrications to understand people through their worldviews
Speculative Design
Approach
Explore alternative realities by envisioning unconventional possibilities and challenging preconceptions about the present and futures
